0% Rafael Nadal
100% Novak Djokovic
Win Probability

Recap

434

Djokovic won the match, which was not unexpected. The teams entered the match evenly matched; Djokovic had a 48% chance to win before the match started

Nadal did not make it easy: the match featured a total of 20 probabilistic lead changes, as neither team managed to seize control until Djokovic took the lead for good at the very end of the match.