Federer surprised Monfils, mounting an impressive comeback to win the match. Monfils seemed to be in command, with a 83% chance to win toward the end of the match, but no lead proved large enough.
Federer entered the match as the strong favorite, with a 78% chance to win before the match started. Monfils took their first lead during the middle stretches of the match, leading up to the exciting finish. The match featured many momentum swings, with a total of 8 probabilistic lead changes