Lucic-Baroni pulled off a surprising upset to defeat Muguruza. Lucic-Baroni entered the match as the decided underdog, with a 19% chance to win before the match started.
From the outset, Lucic-Baroni refused to go away, chipping away at Muguruza's lead until Lucic-Baroni took their first lead during the middle stretches of the match. Muguruza did not go quietly, recapturing the lead for themselves, until Lucic-Baroni regained control for good toward the end of the match.