Houston surprised UCF, mounting an impressive comeback to win the game. UCF seemed to be in command, with a 82% chance to win during the middle stretches of the game, but no lead proved large enough.
The game was expected to be an even matchup, Houston had a 50% chance to win before the game started. UCF led for most of the game, but Houston seized the lead for good at the end of the game. The game featured many momentum swings, with a total of 13 probabilistic lead changes