Muguruza surprised Kerber, mounting an impressive comeback to win the match. Kerber seemed to be in command, with a 83% chance to win during the middle stretches of the match, but no lead proved large enough.
Muguruza entered the match as the underdog, with a 44% chance to win before the match started. Kerber led for most of the match, but Muguruza seized the lead for good toward the end of the match.